What We Cover

The conditions that precede a move

Price moves come from a mismatch between what was expected and what happened, in a market thin enough to register it. That is the whole beat.

01 / CATALYST

Dated events with a known shape

Earnings and guidance, regulatory and legal decisions, clinical readouts, contract awards, index rebalances, lockup expiries, and large option expiries — events with a confirmed date and a limited set of outcomes.

02 / SUPPLY

Float, liquidity, and short interest

Free float against average daily volume, the depth of the book, and reported short interest and borrow — the mechanics that decide whether ordinary demand moves the quote or disappears into it.

03 / POSITIONING

Expectations already in the price

Consensus estimates, the move implied by the options market, open interest and crowding, and recent reaction history — what the event has to beat before anything happens at all.

How a setup earns a write-up

  1. Confirm the date. A company announcement, an exchange notice, or a regulatory deadline — not a rumour about when something might land.
  2. Check the supply. Free float, average volume, and reported short interest. If the stock absorbs size without moving, there is no setup here.
  3. Measure what is priced. Consensus and the implied move, read against the plausible range of outcomes. The gap is the only thing that pays attention.
  4. Write the invalidation. The fact or level that ends the thesis, stated before the event. Without it, every outcome can be explained after the fact.

What each issue contains

What we do not cover

We do not run trade alerts, entry and exit levels, stop placements, or position sizing. Those are advice, they depend on circumstances we know nothing about, and we are not an investment adviser.

We do not cover stocks promoted by paid campaigns without saying so, and we do not write up chart shapes with no underlying mechanism attached. If we cannot point to an event, a supply constraint, or a positioning imbalance, there is nothing here worth a reader's morning.

Nothing here is a recommendation. The presence of conditions that often precede a move tells you nothing reliable about direction, size, or timing; most setups resolve into nothing, and short-horizon trading concentrates losses as readily as gains. See our disclaimer.